UFC 299 Odds, Pick & Prediction for CJ Vergara vs Assu Almabayev Prop Bet for Flyweight Bout (Saturday, March 9)

Updated:2024-05-04 01:16    Views:145

C.J. Vergara vs. Assu Almabayev OddsVergara Odds+420Almabayev Odds-560Over/Under2.5 (+116 / -148)LocationKaseya Center in MiamiTime6:20 p.m. ETTVESPN+Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel. Bet on UFC 299 with our FanDuel promo code.

Here's everything you need to know about the C.J. Vergara vs. Assu Almabayev odds at UFC 299 – with our expert pick and prediction for Saturday, March 9.

UFC 299's lone flyweight fight should be an entertaining one between two young rising prospects when Vergara clashes with Almabayev.

Both fighters are coming off victories, and the winner of this one is likely could get another step up in the competitive 125-pound division.

But there's a small issue with one of the fighters.

Tale of the TapeVergaraAlmabayevRecord12-4-118-2Avg. Fight Time10:418:11Height5'6"5'4"Weight (pounds)127 lbs.*125 lbs.Reach (inches)68"65"StanceOrthodoxOrthodoxDate of birth6/18/19911/25/1994Sig Strikes Per Min6.013.18SS Accuracy57e%SS Absorbed Per Min5.010.49SS Defense53w%Take Down Avg0.003.67TD Acc0@%TD Def74%0%Submission Avg0.23.7

*Missed weight and fined 30% of purse

Vergara missed weight for the third time in his UFC career on Friday, and he has a tough matchup against Assu Almabaev, who excels at taking the back of opponents and choking them out.

It's a position Vergara has consistently found himself defending throughout his UFC run.

Vergara has shown excellent cardio and survival skills to generate a 4-2 record under the UFC banner (including a win on Contender Series). Still, he's consistently in trouble, especially early, and he tends to make fight-IQ mistakes to put himself in bad positions, particularly on the mat.

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Vergara vs. Almabayev Pick

I don't project value on either side of the moneyline for this matchup.

However, depending on the book, I show slight value on the fight to end inside the distance (projected -172) and Almabaev by submission (projected +100), and I'd play it at +110 or better.

Vergara relied upon cardio and durability to generate victories in the UFC. Still, Almabayev is likely the better athlete in both areas, and Vergara's weight miss could further strain his gas tank.

The Pick: Assu Almabayev wins by Submission (+150, 0.25u) at WynnBet